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Friday, June 13, 2008

Pick Your Battles (Part 31873)

Is this the hill for which you want to die?

Soldiers have the good sense to wonder (privately). Even the generals sometimes contemplate that question. It's too bad that the politicians don't stop to think.

Professor Patricia Sullivan (U of Ga) studied the topic. She Investigated 122 military 'interventions' involving the world's big guys: USA, UK, France, USSR/Russia, China - between 1945 and 2003. Using factors such as

• troop levels
• alliances
• troop levels
• length of conflict

she developed a method for determining the probability that the intervening country will achieve its goals. Hint: Vegas gives much better odds.

1. Intervention as a means of getting compliance by another nation? 1:6 (that one is a sucker bet).
   
2. Propping up a foreign regime? 2:5 (stick to roulette or keno)
3. US vs North Vietnam & friends? Less than 1 in 4 (put your money into Ponzi schemes - late in the Ponzi racket - or penny stocks)
4. Overthrow Saddam? 2:3 (duh!)
5. Routing insurgents to bring democracy? 1:4 (and the damned fool said to go on)

The Big Kuhuna of using force to achieve political goals: as troop levels go up, the probability of succeeding goes down.

Labels: insurgents, intervention, odds, saddam, vietnam, war

posted by Recovering Republican® © ™  # 1:16 AM

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